September jobs report is weaker than the headline

Oct 02, 2026

The job market is clearly deteriorating, which is bad for workers but good for stocks because it makes a Fed rate hike less likely this month.

  • September hiring came in far below expectations, and earlier months were revised down — July actually lost jobs.
  • Seven of the last 21 months have seen job losses, and unemployment ticked up again.
  • Wages are growing slower than inflation, so people keep falling behind on the cost of living.
  • Stocks rose anyway: odds of the Fed holding rates steady on October 28 jumped to about 77%, since the stock market runs on easy money, not on the economy.
  • Tech is getting hit hardest, with AI now the top stated reason for job cuts this year.

Outlook: A rate increase looks unlikely in October but is still widely expected at the December meeting, and long-term bond yields kept climbing despite the weak report — so borrowing costs may not ease soon.

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