September jobs report is weaker than the headline
The job market is clearly deteriorating, which is bad for workers but good for stocks because it makes a Fed rate hike less likely this month.
- September hiring came in far below expectations, and earlier months were revised down — July actually lost jobs.
- Seven of the last 21 months have seen job losses, and unemployment ticked up again.
- Wages are growing slower than inflation, so people keep falling behind on the cost of living.
- Stocks rose anyway: odds of the Fed holding rates steady on October 28 jumped to about 77%, since the stock market runs on easy money, not on the economy.
- Tech is getting hit hardest, with AI now the top stated reason for job cuts this year.
Outlook: A rate increase looks unlikely in October but is still widely expected at the December meeting, and long-term bond yields kept climbing despite the weak report — so borrowing costs may not ease soon.