US officials believe the likelihood of China invading Taiwan before 2028 has declined, but that the risk of military action could rise if Lai Ching-te wins a second term — a warning sign for stability in the Taiwan Strait.

• The US assesses that Beijing is unlikely to use force in the near term, but that China may be more inclined to resort to military means if the Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive term in office in 2028.
• The Presidential Office responded that Taiwan will not abandon democracy and freedom because of any military threat.
• China has recently stepped up military pressure on the first island chain in the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, drawing considerable concern from neighbouring countries.
• The United States, Japan and South Korea recently issued a joint statement opposing any unilateral attempt to change the status quo.

Outlook: Taiwan will continue to strengthen its own defences and work with the United States and other democratic allies to maintain the status quo and deter conflict.