A major Italian newspaper argues the old balance across the Taiwan Strait is already gone, which is bad news for Taiwan and for anyone counting on a stable chip supply.

• A front-page piece in Corriere della Sera, by Danilo Taino, says China is slowly taking control of Taiwan without launching a full invasion.
• Chinese warplanes and ships now operate around Taiwan almost daily, and Beijing no longer respects the unofficial line down the middle of the strait.
• Military drills have been turned into something that could flip into an attack at any moment, keeping Taiwan permanently on edge.
• China is also suspected of cutting undersea cables around the island and has ramped up false information aimed at convincing Taiwanese people they have no way out.
• Beijing changes the situation on the ground, then asks other countries to respect "stability" in the strait.

The recent Trump–Xi meeting in Washington is widely read as leaving the status quo untouched: Xi wanted a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan blocked and wanted Washington to come out against Taiwanese independence, and Trump gave neither. The US line stays at "not supporting" independence rather than opposing it.

Outlook: Trump's next moves on Taiwan will be watched closely, since the island makes more than 90% of the world's most advanced AI chips — and whoever wins the AI race wins everything.