Bitcoin has cleared a key technical trigger that in every past instance led to higher prices over the following year, a bullish setup for holders.

• Bitcoin closed above its last lower high, a reclaim that has happened only six times before and was followed by gains every time.
• Median returns after that signal run roughly 22% at three months, 82% at six months, and 46% at twelve.
• The monthly momentum gauge also pushed back above its upper band for the first time since 2023, another setup with strong 6-to-12-month returns.
• The monthly MACD has turned up from the lows, a pattern that historically delivered 79% at six months and 144% at twelve.
• Pullbacks are seen as buying opportunities, though violent drops along the way should be expected.

Outlook: Expect upside into year-end, with bets placed on Bitcoin topping $90,000 and $100,000 before January.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish over the next 6–12 months.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Buy pullbacks; daily dollar-cost averaging continues, with a fill around the $75 bid on spot buys.
• **Support:** $80,440 (quarterly 5 EMA), with a possible overshoot slightly below $80,000; two-day 200-day moving average also acting as a bounce level.
• **Targets:** Above $90,000 in October seen as more likely than not; $95,000 viewed as a stretch for the month; above $90,000 and $100,000 expected before year-end.
• **Invalidation:** Loss of the $80,000 trending higher low on a daily close; a move below $75,000 this quarter would be a surprise.