Bitcoin's October seasonality looks strong on paper, but the case for trusting it is weaker than the headline number suggests — a neutral setup rather than a green light.

• October has been Bitcoin's best month, closing higher in 10 of its 14 years.
• August and September are usually the weak months, yet both delivered big rallies this year.
• That breaks the seasonal pattern and undercuts the idea October must follow the script.
• With only 14 years of data, the sample is too small to lean on heavily.

Outlook: September closes tomorrow, and traders will watch whether the usual October strength shows up after an already-hot summer.