Today's geopolitical drama is mostly staged, and the real outcomes have already been settled behind closed doors among a handful of powerful groups.

• The era of endless wars is winding down, which should mean fewer invasions and occupations ahead.
• What looks like confrontation between countries is posturing, with the range of possible outcomes already worked out in advance.
• The players each want something concrete: asset managers want programmable money, crypto backers want competition, banks want to stay relevant, and governments want control at home plus a seat at the table.
• Tech companies want access to the money system, and militaries exist to enforce whatever rules get agreed.
• None of this is good versus evil — it is simply power bargaining with power.

Outlook: Expect more loud public standoffs that end in outcomes close to what was already negotiated, with money and payment systems as the real battleground.