Core inflation came in cooler than expected, but only after the government changed how it measures it — good for stocks in the short run, bad for anyone trusting the numbers.

• The Bureau of Economic Analysis reworked how three parts of the inflation basket are calculated, shaving a few tenths off the August reading.
• The New York Fed's John Williams hinted at the softer number a day early, which takes pressure off the Fed to raise rates in October.
• The data is already stale — diesel prices jumped hard in September and none of that shows up yet.
• Savings rates have fallen to a three-year low as the COVID-era cash cushion runs out.
• Home prices are already down more than 10% nationally, closing in on the 16% drop of the 2008 crash.

Outlook: Expect the housing slide to deepen and banks to tighten lending, followed by heavy government stimulus once the pain gets political.