Republicans are heading into the midterms with the worst polling position they have faced in years, and the economy and the Iran war are the main reasons.

• A new Angus Reid poll shows Democrats ahead by 16 points on the generic ballot, and the polling average has them up over 8 — their biggest lead in modern history.
• That average matches where Republicans sat in 2010, when they picked up 63 House seats, meaning seats nobody considered in play could flip.
• Trump is flying to Nebraska to prop up Pete Ricketts, a state he won by 20 points, where independent Dan Osborne is running even or ahead.
• Higher gas and diesel prices from the Iran war are squeezing farmers and ranchers, and Republican Senate candidates in Iowa and Michigan are now calling for the war to end.
• Anger over Argentinian beef imports, data center deals, and Trump's taxpayer-funded ads touting the economy is adding to the backlash.

Outlook: Expect more Republicans to distance themselves from the war and from Trump as the map widens into once-safe territory.