Betting markets have sharply cut the odds of a Fed rate move in October, a shift that could give Bitcoin a lift.

• Odds of a Fed hike at the October meeting have fallen from 71% to under 50% in the space of a week.
• These prediction markets are usually right, so a Fed that simply holds rates steady is now the base case.
• Steady rates would be another quiet tailwind for Bitcoin, which trades badly when money gets tighter.
• The bigger question traders are pricing is directional: whether Bitcoin touches $70,000 or $100,000 first.

Outlook: The October Fed decision is the near-term catalyst, and a hold would tilt the odds toward the upside case.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Neutral — the market is split on which direction hits first.
• **Targets:** $100,000 on the upside, $70,000 on the downside.