Bullish long-term calls on TSMC and the Taiwan market are landing just as the index sells off and analysts warn of another leg down — good for long-term holders, uncomfortable for anyone leveraged right now.

• Economist Wu Chia-lung expects TSMC's earnings to double by the late 2020s, putting the stock on a path toward NT$5,000 and possibly NT$8,000 within four to five years, driven by new capacity and the AI buildout.
• If TSMC gets there and heavyweights like Hon Hai and MediaTek follow, Taiwan's index could double past 100,000 points, and in the most bullish case reach 130,000.
• The near term looks much worse: the index fell sharply on the 29th, trading volume has dried up, and more than 1,300 stocks fell in a single session — a pattern analysts say copies July's selloff.
• Regulators plan to link brokers and the bank credit bureau at the end of October so margin borrowing can be tracked across firms, and there is concern that squeezing leveraged money could trigger a forced-selling drop like South Korea's in July.
• High US government bond yields and a weak Wall Street session are adding pressure, though some fund managers read the thin volume as a coiled spring before a fourth-quarter rally rather than a crash warning.

Outlook: Expect more choppy trading and possibly a further drop of a few thousand points before the AI-driven bull case gets tested.