Memory supply will be hard to loosen up even through 2027, and HBM prices keep climbing — good news for suppliers such as Samsung, SK hynix and Micron, but a source of cost pressure for buyers such as Nvidia.

• TrendForce has raised its 2027 HBM price outlook, forecasting that the average selling price will more than double from the previous year.
• The increases stem from continued expansion in AI server demand, with HBM and conventional DRAM competing for the same advanced-process capacity.
• A rising share of higher-priced HBM4, along with volume production of HBM4e in the second half of 2027, will push prices up further.
• GPU and ASIC makers have begun discussing cutting stack heights from 12 layers to 8, aiming to lower per-unit cost and allow limited capacity to supply more GPUs — not because end demand is weakening.
• But an 8-layer product still requires one base die per unit, which works out to a cost per unit of capacity 10% to 20% higher than for 12-layer parts.

Outlook: HBM remains a seller's market in 2027, and cutting capacity can only slightly ease GPU costs — it cannot hold back the overall sharp rise in prices.