Taiwan's opposition KMT is betting on kitchen-table economics rather than anti-China messaging to win November's local elections, a sign it sees voter anger over prices as its best opening.

• The KMT says the mood is unusually cold this year, and low turnout — especially among young voters — is its biggest worry.
• Its pitch: talk about living costs and help for small businesses instead of falling into a "resist China" framing that favors the ruling DPP.
• Taiwan's economy is booming, with growth on track for its best year in nearly four decades and stocks near record highs, but ordinary people feel none of it.
• KMT strategists privately expect to lose ground, naming Changhua, Yilan, Chiayi City and Hsinchu County as vulnerable, and admitting even strongholds like New Taipei and Keelung could flip.
• The vote is being treated as a midterm referendum on President Lai Ching-te.

Outlook: Expect a late-stage turnout fight, heavy negative campaigning, and KMT warnings about foreign interference as the two-month sprint begins.