Taiwan's local elections in two months are shaping up as a referendum on President Lai Ching-te, though his own approval numbers have just turned in his favor.

• The Taipei mayor's race is the one voters across Taiwan are watching most, with New Taipei second — the two northern cities again set the national mood.
• Over half of voters say the November 28 vote is a midterm exam on Lai and the DPP government, a view shared across party lines.
• Lai's trust rating has crossed 50% for the first time since spring 2025, and distrust has fallen to its lowest level since late 2024.
• Opposition supporters are the most eager to frame the vote as a verdict on Lai, but even his own backers largely agree with that framing.
• Undecided voters are the wild card — more than a third would not say whether they see it as a midterm test.

Outlook: With the vote 60 days out, the swing vote in Taipei and New Taipei will decide whether Lai's improving numbers hold up as a governing mandate.