Republicans are heading into the midterms with Trump's own base fraying, and the polling, special elections, and candidate behavior all point to a bad year for the GOP.

• Some of Trump's most devoted rally-going fans have publicly turned on him, with one saying she would walk the halls of Congress to support his impeachment.
• The fight to keep the Epstein files sealed is what broke the spell — it cost Trump the benefit of the doubt he had survived every other scandal with.
• Money problems are doing the rest: high prices, tariffs, and expensive diesel have farm states like Iowa braced for a wave of losses.
• Democrats are so confident they are pushing donors into deep-red Mississippi and South Carolina, and forecasts now give them a 70% shot at the Senate.
• The catch: pollsters have missed low-turnout Republican voters in every recent election, and most competitive states show Democratic leads of only a few points.

Outlook: Democrats look set for a strong midterm, but the margin is thin enough that another polling miss could erase it.