Rising war risk is being framed as a reason to own hard assets, which is bad news for people holding only cash and paper savings.

• Iran, banks, defense contractors, and AI companies are all pushing events along because each one follows its own incentives.
• The most likely path is an inflationary collapse, where prices rise sharply like they did around World War II.
• In that case, the things to own are assets that can't be printed: stocks, gold, Bitcoin, collectibles, and real estate.
• The other path is a deflationary collapse, where cash holds up best and gold and silver beat stocks.
• Nobody knows which one comes, and it's possible neither happens and life carries on as normal.

Outlook: Inflation-driven chaos looks like the more likely outcome, so hard assets get the benefit of the doubt over cash.