Germany's political map is shifting hard against the ruling CDU, a bad sign for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and for Europe's plans to arm up against Russia.

• The AfD placed first in weekend state voting, while Merz's CDU lost badly and was wiped out of one state parliament entirely.
• Roughly a third of AfD's votes came from people who had not bothered to vote before, pushing turnout close to 78%.
• Immigration and the war in Ukraine drove the result — many voters want peace talks with Russia, not rearmament.
• In one state the AfD may lead a governing coalition for the first time, after a left-wing breakaway party agreed to work with it.
• Berlin went the other way, handing power to the hard left and the Social Democrats.

Outlook: Merz says he will stay on and keep pushing war preparations, but with support draining and the AfD now too big to ban, Germany's pro-war course looks increasingly hard to sustain.