Stocks are selling off hard as government bond yields jump to their highest since 2002, but the underlying economy still looks solid — painful now, a buying opportunity later.

• Market breadth is the worst since 2000: fewer than half of S&P 500 companies are above their long-term trend line, and more stocks are hitting new lows than highs.
• Every past instance of yields spiking this fast has ended with something breaking — a bank, a fund, a credit blowup — so a credit shock looks likely.
• The economy itself is holding up: jobs, wages, spending and productivity all look fine, and JP Morgan just flipped from neutral to bullish on US stocks.
• Everything hinges on Iran — talks continue over inspections in exchange for lifting the naval blockade, sanctions relief, and returning Iran's frozen billions, with Trump now demanding more than that.
• Fear gauges are at extremes across the board, which reads as a buying signal rather than a top.

Outlook: A deal with Iran would likely spark a sharp bounce, while gold looks weak if the next Fed chair cuts rates instead of printing money.