Government bond yields shot up sharply, and a surprise offer to ease sanctions on Iran knocked oil prices back down — good for traders in the short run, bad if the calm does not hold.

• The 10-year government bond rate spiked hard, which is what sets the cost of borrowing across the economy.
• Gold, silver, and Bitcoin were all selling off at the same time, a sign of real stress rather than a normal pullback.
• Trump signaled he would lift some sanctions and release frozen Iranian money in exchange for progress on Iran's nuclear program.
• Oil fell several dollars within minutes of the news, and Bitcoin ticked back up off its lows.
• The offer looks more like a way to calm markets than a real deal, since Iran shows no sign of giving up its nuclear ambitions.

Outlook: If Iran does not actually change course, the relief in oil and bonds is likely temporary and yields could climb again.