Florida Republicans are privately worried the state could swing back toward Democrats, a warning sign for the party's grip on a state it dominated all decade.

• Florida feels like 2018 again, the year a Democratic wave wiped out Republican House control.
• Independents drove most of the party's recent voter registration gains, and independents flip easily.
• Candidates are refusing to debate — no general election debate is scheduled in 21 of 36 governor races nationwide — which strips Republicans of their best platform.
• In the Florida Senate race, Byron Donalds leads with $41 million in the bank against David Jolly's $6 million, yet polls show Jolly close, and Miami-Dade and Palm Beach have moved blue.
• Affordability is the real threat: rent, prices, and 7.5% mortgage rates have voters angry, and small businesses are cutting menu items to save money.

Outlook: Without a sharper, more urgent campaign, Florida's Senate and governor races are far more competitive than the money advantage suggests.