China may be quietly offering to abandon Iran in exchange for a free hand on Taiwan — a trade that would be bad news for Tehran and worse for Taipei.

• The idea on the table: China stops buying Iranian oil and even backs regime change there, if Washington looks away on Taiwan.
• There is a strong chance something along those lines has already been floated between the two sides.
• Iran is unlikely to be dropped outright, since it anchors China's Belt and Road route toward Europe and is both a customer and a supplier.
• More likely is a partial shift — China repositioning rather than cutting Iran loose.

Outlook: Expect continued jockeying over Iran as leverage, with no open deal on Taiwan in the near term.