Iran is about to lose its last source of cash as its final oil shipments to China go out, which is bad for Tehran and potentially bad for oil buyers if Iran lashes out.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Iran makes its last oil deliveries to China within two weeks and then has nothing left to sell.
• The US claims it has kept over a billion barrels flowing to the world while blocking Iranian exports entirely.
• Iran's foreign ministry says it is ready for war to resume — even "a doomsday war" — but also ready for a deal.
• Oil is still expensive, with US crude in the mid-90s and Brent near 100, as traders watch the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran's supreme leader has not been seen since March, fueling doubts he is alive or unhurt after the last round of strikes.

Outlook: If the cash really stops, expect either a rushed deal or a more aggressive Iran in the Gulf within weeks.