A US military move against Cuba looks more likely, which is bad news for the Cuban government and for countries that fear they could be next.

• An internal Army memo asks reserve commands whether military police, medical, and logistics units could be available for Southern Command duty in the next three to four months.
• The memo names no operation and no orders have gone out, but the timing points at Cuba.
• Trump has called Cuba a failed state that "will fall," while Marco Rubio runs negotiations with Havana.
• The case being built includes Cuba's ties to communist groups inside the US and its position as a possible base for Russia close to American shores.
• China and other BRICS countries lose the most, having already watched pressure land on Iran and Venezuela, two of their oil suppliers.

Outlook: If talks with Havana collapse, expect action — and more countries worrying they are on the list.