A run back to $150K Bitcoin is possible but unlikely in the near term, which is bad news for traders betting on a fast rally.

• Four things have to line up: an Iran deal, falling bond yields, a peak in oil prices, and the AI boom staying alive.
• The odds of all four happening by late January are only about 10%.
• That is still better than what betting markets are pricing, so the bet is cheap rather than smart.
• A burst of relief buying could come after the election once that uncertainty is out of the way.

Outlook: Bitcoin likely stays stuck below the highs unless yields drop and an Iran deal lands.