Washington is expected to approve a large arms package for Taiwan around the end of the year, a mildly positive signal for Taipei and a setback for Beijing's pressure campaign.

• Congress has already passed a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan, but the White House has not signed off yet.
• Trump is holding the sale back as a bargaining chip while he seeks Chinese help on ceasefires in Iran and Ukraine.
• If the two sides cannot reach a deal by the end of December, the sale is expected to go ahead.
• Beijing wants Washington to shift from "not supporting" Taiwan independence to "opposing" it, and has floated reviving the 1982 communiqué.
• China's earlier hint that it would cancel a summit over arms sales was mostly about looking influential, not real leverage.

Outlook: Expect the arms package to move in December or shortly after, with Beijing keeping up pressure but little sign it can change the outcome.