Prediction markets are pricing a Bitcoin run back above $100,000 this year as a long shot, but the bet is being taken anyway — bullish if you think the crowd is too pessimistic.

• Kalshi traders put the odds of Bitcoin topping $100,000 before December at just 24%, paying out 4x.
• The odds of clearing $100,000 before January have slipped to 37%, down from higher levels earlier.
• Both contracts are seen as underpriced, with the real chance of a December break closer to 67%.
• A September high above $87,500 looks unlikely.

Outlook: Bitcoin is expected to reclaim $100,000 before year-end, though the market is betting against it.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish into year-end.
• **Targets:** $100,000 before December; $100,000 before January.
• **Resistance:** $87,500 (September high seen as out of reach).