Prediction markets are betting against six-digit Bitcoin by year-end, and that gap is being treated as an opportunity rather than a warning.

• Kalshi traders put the odds of Bitcoin ending the year above $100,000 at just 22%.
• The heaviest money — about $38 million — is clustered on Bitcoin finishing between $80,000 and $85,000.
• Several current chart setups point to six figures before year-end being more likely than the market thinks.
• The play is to bet yes against the crowd, with real money behind it, though nothing here is a sure thing.

Outlook: If the setups play out, the 22% odds get repriced fast as year-end approaches.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish into year-end.
• **Targets:** Above $100,000 by December 31.
• **Invalidation:** Year-end close in the $80,000–$85,000 range, where the crowd's money sits.