Bond yields spiked to their highest level since 2007 after strong economic data, which is bad for stocks, the White House, and anyone hoping for cheaper mortgages.

• Traders now expect five rate hikes this cycle, up from four just hours earlier, after a hot reading on business activity.
• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.13%, its biggest one-day jump since the spring tariff shock, and the 30-year pays 5.4% risk-free.
• The Treasury's attempts to push long-term yields down through bond buybacks have completely failed.
• Higher yields squeeze stock valuations — roughly a 6% haircut for Apple and more than 8% for Nvidia on this math alone.
• The Iran conflict is the pressure point: oil is back near $103 Brent, and betting markets see only a modest chance of a nuclear deal soon.

Outlook: Expect choppy trading until an Iran deal lands — if it does, rate-hike bets unwind fast and the dip pays off; if not, the pain continues.