The US-Iran war is going badly for the United States, with Iran probing US defenses and hitting military targets while the US strikes back at civilian tankers.

• Iran fired just two missiles at US warships, not to sink them but to send a warning and learn how US carrier defenses respond.
• Iran can now reverse engineer that response and fire enough missiles next time to get through.
• The US answered by sinking three Iranian tankers, at least two of them owned by a civilian shipping company, instead of hitting military targets.
• Iran has wrecked US bases in the Gulf so badly that troops were pulled out and the US is openly discussing leaving the region.
• Iran also captured a $2.5 million unmanned US submarine and is studying its technology.

Outlook: The Strait of Hormuz is still mostly closed, with even fewer ships passing through, and Iran's next missile strike on US ships is likely to be much larger.