Trump's policies now look indistinguishable from Ted Cruz's, and that is bad news for Republicans heading into the midterms.

• Ted Cruz was the kind of Republican Trump ran against in 2016, yet less than two years into this term he is speaking at Trump's convention and acting as the administration's voice.
• The core complaint is that the administration is putting a foreign country and its citizens ahead of Americans, a stance many Trump voters find immoral.
• Primary voters who backed Trump to reject the Cruz wing of the party feel betrayed and may stay home.
• The Republican Party risks a heavy loss in the midterm election as a result.

Outlook: Expect Republicans to get hit hard in the midterms if the base concludes the party has abandoned the "America first" agenda it campaigned on.