Oil and Iran situation getting worse

Sep 20, 2026

The Iran conflict is spreading to Saudi Arabia and Russia at the same time, which is bad news for oil prices and the stock market this week, though Iran's softer demands leave some hope for a deal.

  • Houthi forces fired cruise missiles at Saudi cities, including Riyadh and Mecca, and targeted Aramco oil facilities at Yanbu, the port Saudi Arabia uses to ship oil around the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Ukraine hit Moscow with hundreds of drones, striking refineries that make up to half of the city's fuel supply, adding to gas shortages already hitting both Russia and Iran.
  • Iran publicly cut its peace demands to three: end the blockade, unfreeze its assets, and stop the regional war — dropping earlier calls for war payments, US withdrawal, and guaranteed uranium enrichment rights.
  • The US naval blockade appears to be working, with CENTCOM saying it moved a billion barrels of oil through Hormuz in two months while Iran got nothing through.
  • Trump says he is deciding "when and if" to strike Iran but is open to meeting its president at the UN this week, and a new law lets him put 100% tariffs on China and India for buying Iranian oil.

Outlook: Trump meets Gulf leaders Tuesday to decide on Iran, and a stock market selloff early in the week would push him toward a ceasefire deal rather than more strikes.

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