The US blockade of Iran is starting to bite, which is bad news for Iran's economy but good news for oil markets and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iran promised to route trade over land to get around the blockade, but the plan is failing on the ground.
• Iranian truck drivers are stuck at the Pakistan border, held up by paperwork and costs, and stranded fruit shipments have rotted.
• Cement and bottled gas are also piling up at the Pakistan and Afghanistan crossings.
• The US Navy is escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz at night, and there have been no new tanker attacks, mine-laying, or US counterstrikes in a week.
• The Wall Street Journal's reporting on the blockade looks credible, since the paper has often criticized the Trump administration rather than simply echoing it.

Outlook: The worst of the tanker fighting may be over as the blockade wears Iran down, though US propaganda remains a real possibility to keep in mind.