The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point, its first hike since 2023, a move that briefly wiped half a trillion dollars off stocks and is bad news for borrowers and for Trump's push for cheaper money.

• Inflation is running around 4–5%, driven mostly by an energy shock: oil is up since the Iran conflict began and US refinery closures have pushed diesel to an all-time record price.
• The Fed's own forecasts say prices will rise this year and cool next year, so the hike looks like an insurance policy against being blamed if inflation spreads, not a fix for the real cause.
• Higher rates can't build refineries or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so critics say the hike does nothing about supply-driven inflation while making borrowing more expensive.
• Record diesel prices hit trucking and shipping costs, which get passed on to shoppers in everything from burgers to strawberries.
• The vote was unanimous, so any Trump-picked chair would likely have done the same, and Trump seems more resigned than angry, blaming a "hostile, political" board rather than Kevin Warsh himself.

Outlook: Inflation likely gets worse before it improves, and even an end to the war would only bring partial relief since US refining costs stay high.