Bitcoin rose after the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, and today's close will likely signal whether that strength holds or reverses — neutral for now, with the outcome hinging on one daily candle.

• The Fed raised rates a quarter point, its first hike in three years, and Bitcoin surprised many by climbing instead of falling.
• Across the 16 Fed hikes since 2015, when Bitcoin closed green the day after, it went on to gain 3% more into Friday's close every single time.
• When the day-after close was red, Bitcoin lost 6% or more over the next five days, also without exception.
• That makes today's close the deciding signal: green points to more upside, red points to a sharp drop.

Outlook: A green close today has historically meant another 3% up by Friday, while a red close has meant a 6%-plus slide over the following week.