Republicans are heading into the midterms with a weak message, which is bad news for the GOP as voters sour on the Iran war, high prices, and data centers.

• JD Vance's pitch is that Republicans cut taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, tightened the border, and deserve "another chance."
• His main argument is that Democrats are "crazy" and driven by left-wing interest groups, a culture-war pivot meant to distract from gas prices and the war.
• A New York Times poll shows only a third of Americans think going to war with Iran was the right call, while two-thirds say it was wrong.
• Ted Cruz insists voter anger over the war is a "very online" fringe and that Tucker Carlson's critics are a small minority, even while admitting the mood on the ground is rough.
• Voter frustration is less about trusting Democrats and more about punishing Republicans for the war, inflation, and Trump's push for data centers.

Outlook: With the war unpopular and prices high, Republicans face a tough midterm, though Democratic leadership could still squander the advantage.