Trump is shifting from slow-walking Iran talks to meeting Gulf leaders next week, a hopeful sign for oil prices and stocks that the worst of the war fears may be over.

• Trump will meet Gulf leaders Tuesday at the UN, right before those states are expected to restart their own delayed talks with Iran.
• The US naval blockade is hurting Iran badly: exports are collapsing, trucks are stuck at the Pakistan border, cargo is spoiling, and its main airline just cut flights after new sanctions.
• No new attacks on oil tankers from either side in a week, which suggests the peak of the fighting has passed.
• China is pressing Iran to rein in the Houthis after their strikes on Saudi Arabia's pipeline, and Xi is expected to meet Trump next Thursday with Iran on the agenda.
• Oil has pulled back from its highs, and the Saudi pipeline should be back online in three to four weeks.

Outlook: If the Gulf and China meetings produce progress, oil could drop back below triple digits and stocks could recover, though Trump has promised a deal many times before without delivering.