JD Vance is making a "give us another chance" pitch for the midterms, a sign of weakness that is bad news for Republicans as polls and candidate behavior point to a rough November.

• Vance's pitch admits voters may not agree with Republicans and leans on painting Democrats as extreme, a strategy that usually only works for the party out of power.
• In Iowa, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson is skipping Vance's rally and running ads about working with Democrats, while Iowa Republicans broke with Trump on the Iran war vote.
• Democrats lead the generic ballot by around 9 points, and polls that name actual candidates show them doing even better.
• Voters mostly oppose Trump's proposed $5,000 "dividend" check, with many seeing it as a gimmick that will not happen and will not offset high gas, health insurance, and grocery costs.
• Trump is putting Vance front and center in a likely losing midterm, which could damage his 2028 presidential chances.

Outlook: Republicans are shifting from defending the House to just turning out their base to limit losses in red states like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska.