Trump is promising every American adult a $5,000 check if Republicans hold Congress after the midterms, a pledge that looks more like vote-buying than policy and almost certainly will not happen.

• The price tag would be about $1.3 trillion, on top of $40 trillion in national debt.
• Trump refuses to send the money now, saying Democrats would waste it if they win — making the payout an explicit reward for voting Republican.
• Tariffs are supposed to pay for it, but they have brought in only a fraction of that, and the Supreme Court already forced refunds on part of what was collected.
• Trump's claim of $20 trillion in new investment is inflated — the White House's own number is lower, and actual foreign money coming in was a tiny slice of it.
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick floats funding it with things like $5 million "platinum card" visas, which would not come close.

Outlook: The checks are very unlikely to arrive before November, and the Treasury is already struggling to find buyers for US debt.