Taiwanese public opinion is shifting: confidence in the economy has turned positive and the DPP's standing is rising — bad news for the Kuomintang ahead of November's local government elections.

• For the first time in nearly 20 years, positive assessments of Taiwan's economy outnumber negative ones.
• The return of Taiwanese businesses from overseas and surging semiconductor demand have reversed the long-standing problems of low wages and industrial hollowing-out.
• Lai Ching-te's satisfaction rating has passed 50%, and Cho Jung-tai's has turned from negative to positive, marking a clear recovery for the governing party.
• More than half of respondents view the Kuomintang negatively, and its favourability has fallen even below the level of its own core support base.
• Remarks from within the party such as "I am Chinese" and "Taiwan is not a country", together with the restoration of the Huang Fu-hsing party branch, are seen as a departure from mainstream public opinion.

Outlook: the top four figures in favourability are all from the pan-green camp, while the KMT's leading lights are either preoccupied with their own troubles or of limited influence — in the year-end campaign, the party's candidates may well have to fend for themselves.