A new report blames a rogue hardline faction in Iran for wrecking a US peace deal, but the claim rests on anonymous leaks and fits a story Washington and Israel have been pushing since the war began.

• The report says a fringe hardline group, led by an influential cleric, ordered the Strait of Hormuz attacks on commercial ships that restarted fighting with the US.
• It claims Iran's president was blindsided and had to hunt for who gave the order, with the Revolutionary Guard denying involvement.
• The story fits a narrative promoted since day one of the war — that Iran's government is splintering — which would let the US and Israel call the war a partial win.
• Iran's government has instead held together, even completing a leadership handover during the heaviest bombing, and the top decision-makers are now mostly Revolutionary Guard figures who broadly agree.
• Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen or heard in public; he is likely alive but seriously hurt, after his wife, daughter, and father were killed in the early strikes.

Outlook: Expect more anonymous-source stories about cracks inside Tehran, even as the Iranian government stays consolidated and hostilities continue.