History says a rate hike is bad for Bitcoin in the days that follow, while a hold tends to lift it.

• When the Fed raises rates, Bitcoin has typically lost about 2% over the next 10 days.
• When the Fed holds rates steady, Bitcoin has gained closer to 2.5% in that same stretch.
• Hike days themselves usually end flat — the selling shows up afterward, as the move gets faded.
• This time the market is heavily positioned for a hike, which makes the setup less typical than past cycles.

Outlook: If the Fed hikes, expect a slow grind lower in Bitcoin over the following week and a half rather than an immediate drop.