A short Trump–Xi summit in Washington in late September is shaping up as a narrow trade deal rather than a thaw, and Taiwan is the piece most at risk of being used as leverage.

• The meeting has been squeezed to a single day, so expectations are low and Taiwan is unlikely to get much airtime.
• China is expected to arrive with gifts: record purchases of US soybeans and beef to help Trump ahead of the midterm elections.
• Washington keeps tightening the screws anyway, blocking Chinese takeovers, banning Chinese routers and transformers, and cutting Chinese universities off from defense funding.
• Beijing wants Washington to hold off on approving new arms sales to Taiwan, and is testing how far the US will bend.
• Claims that America is about to abandon Taiwan are being pushed as an influence campaign, the same playbook used around the last Trump–Xi meeting.

Outlook: Expect a modest farm-purchase deal and vague language on Taiwan, with both sides claiming a win and the underlying competition continuing.