Taiwan's government expects Xi Jinping to use the coming Washington summit to push doubts about America inside Taiwan — a warning sign for Taipei, but US policy toward the island reportedly has not shifted.

• Trump and Xi meet in Washington in late September, their second meeting after May's talks.
• Taiwan's mainland affairs body expects China to press the US for concessions in Asia and to seed the idea that Washington cannot be trusted to defend Taiwan.
• Big gaps on tech controls, chips, and Taiwan are unlikely to close; any deal will probably be narrow — tariffs, rare earths, or Chinese purchases of US soybeans, beef, and corn.
• Ukraine and the Middle East are likely to dominate the agenda, with Washington listening rather than bargaining on Taiwan.
• Think-tank talk of pulling US forces back from the island chain near China has resurfaced, echoing the run-up to the last summit; US officials say their Taiwan policy is unchanged.

Outlook: Expect modest trade announcements and no movement on Taiwan, with Beijing focused on Xi's power at home ahead of next year's party congress.