Oil supply is shrinking while the world's biggest buyer comes back into the market — bad news for drivers, companies, and anyone hoping the Fed cuts rates.

• Saudi Arabia's main east-west pipeline has been shut down after attacks, on top of the supply already lost around Hormuz.
• China has stopped holding back and is buying crude from everywhere, betting prices go much higher.
• US inflation is climbing again, and traders now see a rate hike as close to certain by December.
• Diesel has nearly doubled in three months, and trucking companies are eating most of the cost instead of passing it on.
• Big tech is exposed too: Oracle is cutting staff and piling on debt to fund data centers just as borrowing gets expensive.

Outlook: Unless the fighting with Iran winds down, expect higher gas and diesel prices, higher interest rates, and a squeeze that spreads from transport into the rest of the economy.