A bleak forecast: the trade system that made the modern world rich is breaking apart, which is bad for almost everyone — investors, Europe, and people in poorer countries most of all.

• The next mass attack on the US is more likely to hit banks and payment systems than buildings, because wiping out people's account access would cause the deepest panic.
• The dollar's power rests on oil being sold in dollars and on the US Navy keeping trade lanes open; the Middle East war is chipping away at both.
• Iran and its allies in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq now sit on the main shipping choke points, and just making shipping look risky is enough to break the insurance that global trade depends on.
• Advanced chips need China's raw materials, Dutch machines and Taiwanese factories all at once — if countries stop trading, technology stops moving forward.
• Other flashpoints are lining up: water shortages, young populations in Africa and the Middle East pushing migration into an aging Europe, and rising tension between China and Japan over Taiwan.

Outlook: The Middle East fighting is expected to keep widening rather than settle, with more countries pulled in and more pressure on oil, shipping and prices.