The Fed looks set to raise interest rates for the first time in three years, and the worry is that it will slow an already weak economy rather than fix inflation.

• Most economists expect a hike, but plenty of them think it is the wrong move.
• The case against: this inflation comes from an energy supply shock, not an overheating economy, and higher rates cannot fix that.
• Seven closed US refineries plus the war have pushed up diesel and gas costs, and those costs land in the price of everything that gets trucked.
• Higher rates keep mortgage rates near 6.5%, which locks homeowners sitting on cheap old loans in place and prices new buyers out.
• Tech stocks took the hardest hit, with the Nasdaq down 2% on the day.

Outlook: If the Fed hikes, expect borrowing to get more expensive and consumer spending to keep weakening, with affordability becoming a political problem by the midterms.