Bitcoin is pushing back toward the top of its recent range going into the Fed decision, and the setup looks good for buyers if the move holds.

• Traders have almost fully priced in a rate hike this week, so a surprise hold would likely spark a sharp jump in Bitcoin.
• History says hikes tend to bleed prices lower over the following ten days, while holds tend to lift them.
• Bitcoin just reclaimed all its major moving averages, flipping the trend picture bullish again.
• A rare long-term crossover between the 21 and 377 moving averages is close, and past instances delivered around 100% gains a year later in 78% of cases.
• Three events crowd the week: a Senate clarity vote Tuesday, the Fed Wednesday, and quarterly options expiry Friday.

Outlook: Bitcoin looks set to grind higher into October toward the $90,000–$100,000 area, with a choppy, correction-heavy first half of 2027 expected before any bigger run.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish
• **Buy / accumulate:** Daily DCA; confirmation on a daily close above $78,000 (CME)
• **Support:** Rising 21 EMA (trending higher low); weekend low just above it
• **Resistance:** $79,965 (Friday's high on CME) — the key pivot to clear
• **Targets:** $80,000 near term, then $81,300 and $84,500; $90,000–$100,000 by year-end; 100%+ over a year if the 21/377 cross plays out
• **Key triggers:** Close above $78,200 flips the stochastic up; close above $78,800 reclaims the ribbon midband; monthly close above $78,500 reclaims the monthly median for the first time since October 2025
• **Invalidation:** Failure to trade above the $79,965 pivot; losers in this setup typically drop 2% within 5 days and 10% within 20