China is stacking up military, diplomatic, and trade pressure ahead of a Washington summit, which is bad news for Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines in the near term.

• Xi Jinping is set to visit Washington on September 24 to meet Trump, and Beijing has spent the run-up building leverage.
• The moves include a tour of foreign capitals, from a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting with Putin to stops in Egypt and India for the BRICS summit.
• Chinese forces have stepped up gray-zone harassment in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and the waters around Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.
• On trade, cheap Chinese exports keep growing and Beijing plans to dangle bigger US purchases as a bargaining chip, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushes G20 countries to jointly tackle China's excess factory output.
• The domestic goal is to sell an image of China managing the US as an equal, easing pressure from a slowing economy and smoothing Xi's path to another term after the 21st Party Congress.

Outlook: Washington is treating the summit mainly as risk management, and Taiwan's bet is to stay indispensable to global supply chains rather than become a bargaining chip.