Taiwan's economy and society are holding up well, but the international system it depends on is changing faster than its domestic debate reflects — a warning for whoever leads the island next.

• Taiwan is one of the strongest advanced economies right now, thanks to its central place in the chip supply chain, and the government plans to hand some of the gains back to the public.
• At home, politics is stuck in the usual fights — budget battles between the ruling party and parliament, central-versus-local money disputes, and early jockeying for November's local elections and the 2028 presidential race.
• The AI boom is not being felt by everyone: small businesses and their workers see little of it, and prices are rising faster than wages.
• Abroad, the American-led order that has held since 1945 is fading — the UN is losing weight, US alliances are fraying, and "America First" now looks like a lasting feature of US policy rather than a Trump-only detour.
• Three futures are on the table: a new Cold War split with China, big powers carving up spheres of influence, or a messier multipolar world — the spheres option is the most dangerous for Taiwan, because it invites great powers to trade Taiwan away without Taiwan in the room.

Outlook: Cheap AI-powered weapons are already helping smaller forces in Ukraine and Iran hold off bigger armies, which raises the cost of invasion — but Taiwan's leaders will need to shift the debate from party rivalry and cross-strait management to how to stay safe and rich in a world that no longer works the way it did.