The manoeuvring ahead of Taiwan's 2028 presidential election has begun early, with the question of whether the KMT and the TPP can join forces emerging as the key variable — bad news for the KMT.

• One widely circulated scenario for the campaign holds that the DPP need only hold on to its 45% core support to win re-election on the back of a divided opposition.
• The arithmetic is straightforward: if the TPP draws off 12% of the vote and the KMT is held to 43%, the Greens win with a plurality.
• Ko Wen-je's court cases are therefore seen as a political bargaining chip: if his sentence on appeal is kept under 10 years, he remains eligible to run.
• Voters move readily between the KMT and the TPP, while there is almost no exchange between the DPP and the TPP, so any Ko candidacy would eat into the KMT's vote base.

With only 77 days to go before the year-end local elections, the races in Taipei and New Taipei are heating up in tandem.

• In New Taipei, Lee Shih-chuan held a rally in Banqiao attended by more than 6,000 people, with Hou Yu-ih appearing in person to give a clear endorsement as his successor, and pledging to push forward a "New Taipei Dome" and the redevelopment of the Banqiao Gymnasium.
• In Taipei, Chiang Wan-an is under pressure over municipal controversies including food safety, child abuse cases and a rat infestation, while the city council has also dug up the "three major promises" he made three years ago, none of which have been kept.
• DPP candidate Puma Shen accused Chiang Wan-an of wanting only to smooth things over and of covering up problems in order to position himself for a presidential run; KMT chair Cheng Li-wun countered that Shen was "playing both sides".
• Ko Wen-je's wife, Chen Pei-chi, posted about the difficulties she has faced looking for work and publicly questioned the first lady's low-profile approach.

Outlook: The results of the local elections will directly determine how the bargaining chips for a KMT-TPP alliance in 2028 are distributed, while the progress of Ko Wen-je's trial will be the next thing to watch.