Central banks in major economies are holding meetings in a cluster this week, and the market is broadly leaning toward rate hikes — bad news for borrowers and equity markets, good news for savers and for countries looking to steady their exchange rates.

• US inflation in August remained stuck at a high level, with core prices rising more than expected, and the market is betting the Fed will not rule out a hike this week.
• UBS has changed its view, forecasting quarter-point hikes by the Fed in both September and December, citing the hawkish stance of new Chair Warsh along with strong employment data.
• The Bank of Japan is all but certain to raise rates by a quarter point on 18 September; the European Central Bank already moved earlier this week; and the Bank of England is expected to hold, though there are voices internally calling for a hike.
• Goldman Sachs and most economists surveyed take the opposite view, arguing the Fed will keep rates unchanged this year unless inflation climbs further.
• With Taiwan's inflation above 2% for four consecutive months, alongside sharply higher import and production costs and a hawkish turn among neighbouring countries, the probability of a half-point-of-a-percentage-point (12.5 basis point) hike at the central bank's 17 September board meeting has risen markedly.

Outlook: The dense run of rate decisions this week could bring greater volatility to global stock and currency markets. If Taiwan follows with a hike, mortgage and corporate borrowing costs will rise further.